, , , , , , , , , , , , ,


After last nights 3 hit shut out of the Brewers the Chicago Cubs Jake Arrieta should be the only choice for this years National League Cy Young winner. Even if those two guys in the city of Angels continue their dominance.

Arrieta captured his 20th win and lowered his ERA to 1.88 for the year and 0.94 in his last 18 games. Numbers are the key to winning the Cy Young. Win and loss records aren’t usually a determining factor. With a number of former Cy Young winners not having the luxury of having a whopping amount of wins.

But a lower than low ERA usually helps significantly. Arrieta has just that, with a unbelievable 0.86 ERA since the All-Star break. An ERA so low that hasn’t been matched in well, ever. Bob Gibson’s ERA after the 1968 All-Star break was 1.19. Gibson would end up winning the Cy Young with a incredible ERA of 1.12.

While Gibson’s dominance all those years ago will never be matched Arrieta is making a strive for greatness this season. While Arrieta has a few complete games he is currently 24 games behind Gibson’s. But that was then and this is now. And now we have a few other great pitchers and then numbers don’t lie.

Arrieta’s 1.88 ERA isn’t even the best in the National League this year. As Zack Greinke currently has him beat by .23 points, landing at 1.65. And his current Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Clayton Kershaw isn’t too far behind with a 2.18 ERA.

But does the payroll the Dodgers have with a line up full of All-Stars and Gold Glovers help the fact that Kershaw and Greinke have such a low ERA? And with that factor is it where they play or who they play also a key factor? The closets team to the Dodgers in the win/loss column in their division of the San Francisco Giants who are currently 6 games behind.

The Cubs, the team Arrieta pitches for, is currently the third place team in their own division. With the Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates above them in the win/loss column.

Yet another huge but comes into factor when we think this way. Is it the team or the man. The Cubs have a current record of 89-62 while the Dodgers have a record of 85-65. The Cubs have Arrieta at 20 wins and their second best starting pitcher is  Jon Lester with 10 wins. While Greinke and Kershaw combined have 32 wins, that in some sense would mean they’re 2 wins better.

So what does all that mean? Probably nothing and is just more excuses why not to give Arrieta the Cy Young.

Greinke though is having good year. 18 wins, 1.65 ERA and he’s given up less hits, walks, runs and has a WHIP of .90 compared to Arrieta. But Arrieta does have more strike outs, 220 to 185, and more innings pitched at 216 to 207.2. But that could all be a factor that Arrieta has one more start thus far than Greinke.

So basically the major fight for the Cy Young is down to Greinke and Arrieta. With Kershaw having a honor mention and anyone else thought of in contention is off in a distant fourth. Players like Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, John Lackey, Matt Harvey, Madison Bumgarner and Max Scherzer all have ERA’s under 3. But at this point in the season are only an honorable mention.

Who will win? Most likely Greinke due to the lower ERA, the name recognition and the lower walks, runs and various other stats. But the fans vote, or at least this fans vote goes to Arrieta. But hey we still have a few more weeks left to find out.